At the G-8 summit in Deauville on Thursday and Friday this week, the Arab Spring is on the agenda. The specific questions to be discussed, among many others, are what to do about the Libyan war and how to deal with Syria’s Bashar-al-Assad’s continuing violent suppression of popular protests.
As background to the discussions, it may be useful for us observers to keep in mind the essential differences between the Libyan and the Syrian situations.
The first reason why the international community has so far not taken any decisive action against Syria, unlike that against Libya, is military. By March 17, when the Security Council authorized the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya, in keeping with the U.N.’s “responsibility to protect,” Gaddafi had lost to the rebels more than a third of his territory. Moreover, his military forces are not in the same league as the Syrians’, with their Russian fighter planes and rockets. Without American cooperation, no military action against Syria is conceivable, and clearly no such cooperation is in the cards.
The second reason is political. There is fear of destabilization, on many levels. The Assad regime has close relations with Iran. Weakening it would indirectly weaken Iran’s rulers, a highly desirable objective. But not for the Saudis who consider the regime a counter-weight to Teheran’s, especially now that Egypt is not what it was. The Saudis were aghast when Obama abandoned Mubarak.
And then there is Bahrain. Obama may be highly displeased that the Saudis are helping the autocrats of Bahrain suppress their protesters. But he knows that Bahrain is an important naval base for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which guards the Persian Gulf. Nearly two thirds of the world’s proven petroleum reserves and forty-five percent of the world’s natural gas reserves are in the Gulf region. This may temper Obama’s displeasure. Stability has its virtues.
The Turks are concerned that the Kurdish minority in Syria’s north may cause them trouble if the Assad regime is weakened or removed. And the Israelis are worried that an Islamic successor to the secular Assad may undo years of hard work trying to come to some sort of understanding with Damascus. On the other hand, Israel would welcome any move that would weaken Hezbollah and Hamas, which are supported by Syria. Russia is a traditional ally of Syria and would no doubt veto any U.S. resolution against the regime, and the autocratic Chinese see no reason to object to autocracies elsewhere.
No doubt the G-8 will be aware of Obama’s assurance to the people of the Middle East last Thursday: “If you take the risks that reform entails, you will receive the full support of the United States.” But he also added: “There will be times when our short-term interests don’t align perfectly with our long-term vision.”
It is safe to predict that the G-8 in Deauville will be as pragmatic in these matters as the President of the United States.
Eric Koch’s book, The Weimar Triangle, is available at Indigo-Chapters and in your local bookstore. 
Syria, in-spite of its highly repressive record, is still in the U.S. good books. Syria has been more than happy to do the “dirty work” such as torturing Maher Arar after he was transferred there on the orders of U.S. Deputy Attorney Larry Thompson in 2002. The “right” sort of dictatorship.
On the other hand, Colonel Mummar Qaddafi’s real crime (besides all that oppression and abusive stuff that it is a despot’s prerogative) was to be rather flamboyant in a Michael Jackson/Don Cherry way.
But what position should or, for that matter, can Canada take?
No doubt the U. of T.’s John Kirton will tell us, on TV, radio and in the press. And so will my daughter, Madeline, who will also be in Deauville as the Manager of the G-8 Rsearch Group [of graduate students]. But she only talks to me.
Not so! I’ll talk to anyone! Although at the moment I can only talk to horses in the Normandy countryside (we are housed in a little hotel and stud farm near Beuzeville — I do not know if any of the horses are Arabian).
All I can say, however, is that apart from the head of the Arab League, the French have invited the leaders if Tunisia and Egypt, so that they can “listen to what they need” rather than “lecture” them. They thought about inviting Libya’s transitional committee, but they don’t yet wield sufficient power to be able to do much.
They call it te MENA spring. That stands for the Middle East and North Africa. Beware Kirton’s pronouncements: he will likely refer to Obama continuing to finish what Bush started — at the 2004 Sea Island Summit (the first G8 summit hosted by the U.S. after 9/11), George invited Karzai and a bunch of guys to launch the BMENA Initiative (B stands for broader) to fight terrorism and spread the gospel of democracy!
You should go to Cabourg, not far from Deauville. The Auberge du Chat Botte is a very nice place to stay. We stayed there in July 1933 !!! No horses, though.