Sketches posting no. 999
From the Ipsos Reid poll on July 4:
…They say that a week in politics is a lifetime – and the next Federal election is still just under two years from now so the political timeframe is, well, almost infinity. Anything can happen – just look at the huge long-standing margin that NDP leader Adrian Dix had in British Columbia that crashed to earth during the writ. Ergo, campaigns matter.
But it’s instructive to note that if decided voters are measured as noted above, the Liberals are supported by 33% compared to the Conservatives at 30% and the New Democratic Party at 28% (with a further 6% who indicate they’d support the Bloc Quebecois and another 4% who would support another party, including the Green Party). But what would the “turn out and turn up” outcome look like?
Right now, with a 60% turnout rate and with those most likely to “turn up” at the ballot box, voters could look like this: Liberals – 35%, Conservatives – 29%, New Democrats – 26%, Bloc Quebecois – 5%, Green Party – 3% and Other – 1%.
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In an editorial on Saturday, July 5, The Globe and Mail commented on the poll:
…Among the curious findings there is one that suggests that Canadians believe that there is an inverse ratio between competence and honesty. Of the three major parties, the Conservatives are held to be the most competent and least honest while with the NDP it is the other way round. As usual, the Liberals are somewhere inbetween. On the face of it, greater competence is likely to attract the voters, but if the Conservatives drift on in their current direction, a desire for a change may yet prevail.
